CANADIAN DOLLAR WEEKLY FORECAST: USD/CAD BRACES AHEAD OF KEY U.S. ECONOMIC DATA
Teaser: USD/CAD will be subject to USD specific factors next week as the Canadian dollar remains exposed to downside risk.
- CAD under pressure despite crude oil comeback.
- Jackson Hole inches closer.
USD/CAD FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP
The Canadian dollar suffered the same fate as the rest of FX markets last week with the U.S. dollar taking the lead after markets reacted favorably to the greenback post-FOMC. Canadian retail sales managed to claw back some losses on Friday showing a gradual and consistent improvement in the retail environment. Of course this has not been adjusted for inflation so it will be interesting to see whether or not the adjusted figure is net positive.
From a crude oil perspective, a marked reduction in U.S. stockpiles were not enough to deter a surging USD with both the API and EIA releases helping lift crude oil prices. Looking ahead, the coming week is dominated with U.S. centric data with focus on the Jackson Hole Symposium towards the end of the week.
USD/CAD ECONOMIC CALENDAR